Purpose, Objectives and Key Questions
The aim of the project is to draw the big picture of how advanced renewable transport fuels (i.e. advanced biofuels and renewable liquid and gaseous transport fuels of non-biological origin) can contribute to the decarbonisation of the transport sector.
The objectives of this Strategic Project will be to:
- Bring together the expertise of IEA AMF, IEA Bioenergy and national experts to showcase the role of advanced renewable transport fuels to transport decarbonisation in 2030 and beyond.
- Analyse national strategies for transport decarbonisation.
- Identify possible challenges and hurdles for the implementation of advanced renewable transport fuels (both regarding fuel production and end-use in vehicles)
- Identify policy gaps and provide recommendations how to overcome them
The project will assess the potential of advanced renewable transport fuels from three different angles: policy, markets and technology.
The project is based on several studies that have been undertaken by both involved TCPs (IEA Bioenergy and Advanced Motor Fuels TCP) as well as an experienced team consisting of international experts. The project will also lean on transport emission reduction strategies put forwards in various countries.
Priority Topics for the project include the following:
- Identify 5 – 7 countries/markets to be analysed in-depth. In particular, the project should examine the policies of the European Union, Sweden, Finland, USA, Brazil and India as well as other that wish to contribute resources to the project.
- Obtain the key strategies for transport decarbonisation and introduction of alternative fuels in selected countries, with targets for CO2 reductions in transport up to as high as 50 % (Finland) and 70 % (Sweden) by 2030.
- Assess the need for renewable fuels to reach the CO2 emission reduction targets in various countries
- Consider the availability of robust technologies for the production of biofuels and evaluate the projections for fuel supply and vehicle technology towards 2030.
- Consider combinations of energy efficiency, electrification and renewable liquid and gaseous fuels
- Explore the potential market share of biofuels and renewable fuels in 2030.
The following work packages are foreseen, with lead partners in brackets:
WP0: Project management and reporting
Activities include setting up the project, identifying 5-7 countries/markets to be analysed in depth, definition of data required for each country, soliciting individual contributions to the work packages, project management, reporting to both TCPs and producing the final report.
WP1: Description of key strategies for transport decarbonisation and introduction of alternative fuels in the selected countries (China, Finland, Germany, Japan, Sweden, USA, Brazil, India)
Each country has quite specific frame conditions for the use of advanced renewable transport fuels. Alternative fuel availability, current vehicle fleet and relevant political targets and policies will be described. The selected countries will provide this as in-kind/task sharing contributions.
WP2: Description of the availability of robust technologies for the production of advanced renewable transport fuels and the related costs
This work package will provide an overview on production pathways for advanced renewable transport fuels. These will include biochemical, thermochemical, hybrid and new technologies for the production of advanced biofuels as well as technologies for the production of electrofuels. Feedstock availability, technology readiness level and production costs will be described. Selected experts will be paid to provide these contributions. In addition, knowledge and data from IEA Bioenergy Task 39 and Task 41 Project 9 will be provided as in-kind/task sharing contributions.
WP3: Country assessments
This work package encompasses an analysis of 5 countries (Sweden, Germany, USA, Brazil, and India; in addition to Finland for which the existing assessment will be translated into English) regarding policies for GHG emission reductions in the transport sector. The analysis will take into account policies for the market introduction of both renewable fuels and electric vehicles. It will estimate vehicle fleet and fuel use towards 2030 and perform a sensitivity analysis for EV numbers. From this the analysis will estimate renewable fuel volumes needed to reach the climate goals set for transport. This will also consider the use of electrofuels. All of this will be done using a simplified calculation tool derived from the Finnish model.
The analysis will finally provide scenarios for advanced renewable transport fuels market shares in 2030, and it will reveal country-specific barriers to the implementation of advanced renewable transport fuels.
For this task, good input from the target countries are needed, also interplay while doing the analysis is needed. The selected countries will provide the required input and dialogue as part of their in-kind/task sharing contribution.
WP4: Putting the country assessments into global context
Based on data available at IEA, advanced renewable fuel volumes of the selected countries required to meet national GHG reduction targets will be compared to global supply and demand expectations. Adam Brown will use data from IEA databases and other published data for evaluating how the country assessments match with existing projections for their regions and globally. Countries, for which data is easily available, will be added as 1-page info boxes.
WP5: Summary on implementation barriers
This work package will summarise challenges and hurdles to the implementation of advanced renewable transport fuels along the value chain (biomass mobilisation, development of conversion technologies, cost of fuel production, compatibility with the legacy fleet, suitable policy measures). It will be based on WP3 and on the AMF Annex on Lessons Learned. The AMF Annex on Lessons Learned will provide this as in-kind/task-sharing contribution.
WP6: Recommendations to policy makers
Based on the policy gaps identified for the assessed countries in WP3 and WP5, recommendations to policy makers will be derived how to overcome these gaps. This will be complemented by some general recommendations on useful policy instruments for the market introduction of both advanced renewable transport fuels and electric drivetrains to achieve GHG emission reduction targets for the transport sector.
A final workshop for dissemination of the project results will be held on 18th November 2019 in Brussels to present the results of the study to interested participants and stakeholders. The aim will be to attract policy makers to attend the workshop. More information on the workshop and a link to the registration page are provided here.
Another presentation of the project results presentation will be organised in conjunction with a high profile bioenergy gathering like international conferences (e.g. IEA Bioenergy ExCo workshop in Estonia, Fuels of the Future conference in Germany, EU-India Conference, CEBC 2020, EUBCE 2020) to attract a wide audience and to get visibility.
The workshops’ results will be gathered, reported and published via the internet and disseminated through social media. In addition, key results are analysed and disseminated with participating countries and the ExCo for evaluation and further actions. The results will also inform IEA Secretariat analysis including those built into the IEA scenarios such as those within the IEA’s Energy Technology Perspectives publications.
The flow of work packages is illustrated below.
January 2019 - November 2020
China, Finland, Germany, Japan, Sweden, USA, AMF Annex 28, AMF Annex 59
USD 141.000 (~ € 126.000)